Predicting Pretrial Failure

About this book

Predicting Pretrial Failure: How Prior Criminal Record Outperforms Offense Severity challenges a foundational assumption of bail and pretrial detention decisions. Using large-scale case data, the authors show that a defendant's prior criminal history is a substantially stronger predictor of failure to appear and pretrial rearrest than the seriousness of the current charge. The findings carry direct implications for risk-assessment tool design, judicial decision-making, and ongoing bail reform.